This week's macro context
Every Monday, before London open, we refresh the Gold XAUUSD scenario: Fed bias, US data ahead (CPI, PPI, NFP, retail sales), geopolitical tension and ETF flows. Gold doesn't move by magic — it reacts to real yields, the dollar (DXY) and safe-haven demand. Reading the context stops you from going short in a structural uptrend (or vice versa).
Key H4 and H1 levels to watch
We publish three operating zones: strong resistance (where we look for reactive shorts), strong support (where we look for continuation longs) and an indecision zone (where we stay flat). Every level is validated by volume confluence, weekly VWAP and Fibonacci on the last H4 swing. No 'eyeballed' lines — only levels drawn with a repeatable method.
Long scenario vs short scenario
Long scenario active above level X, target Y, invalidation Z. Short scenario active below level A, target B, invalidation C. Every scenario has a minimum 1:2 risk-reward. If the market touches neither, we don't trade. That's how you build a green year.
News calendar and windows to avoid
10 minutes before and 30 minutes after NFP, CPI and FOMC: market closed for TETC. In those windows Gold spikes 40-60 pips in a second — no edge, only a casino. Discipline around the macro calendar is half the job.
How to get the outlook in real time
The full outlook, with annotated charts and level alerts, is published every Monday in The Edge Trading Club's VIP Telegram Room. Free access with partner brokers or direct subscription — no return promises, just the operational plan I follow first, every week.
